, The Green Pennies Stock Report: 08/08/17


Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Bitcoin - Cryptocurrency Mining - A Very Volatile Market?

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For those that don't know, Bitcoin is a worldwide cryptocurrency and payment system that was developed solely to be decentralized (not controlled by any government). It was first released back in 2009 and has since made history. 1 Bitcoin currently is worth 3395.01 US Dollars! With the creation of the many new cryptocurrencies, these virtual currencies are now being traded openly on the stock market. For investors, the currency isn't as attractive through concept, but looking at how much 1 Bitcoin has grown in worth since its creation, investors continue to push this stock price higher and higher. These leaves the question, should you throw all of your money into Bitcoin? How about an alternative cryptocurrency (or Altcoin) like Ethereum? Let's explore these currencies pros and cons and see if we can come up with trading strategies for these coins. 

First, let's start with businesses that have opted into allowing Bitcoin as a currency. The major reason why some businesses have opted into using Bitcoin is to allow their customers the choice of using it as an alternate payment. With money becoming more and more digital as time goes on, Bitcoin seemed like the ultimate peak of how virtualized currency could get. If a person walks in and forgot his wallet (he doesn't have cash or a credit or debit card) but remembers that he has Bitcoin, he could use Bitcoin to complete the transaction. Also, Bitcoin tenders like CoinBase might have lower transaction fees for using Bitcoin. 

Next, investors looking at a graph of the price of Bitcoin would be very impressed. Since its creation, Bitcoin has continued to go up (with quick crashes that always seem to recover very quickly). To investors, this might seem like a safe investment, much like how investors see gold keeping its value even after the dollar crashes.

These are the pros that Bitcoin investors are pushing on businesses. On closer inspection though, I (from an investors standpoint) have serious doubts about the future of Bitcoin as well as the safety of your investment.

When I was younger, I was looking to get into cryptocurrency mining as a source of extra money. I learned about the many programs you can use as well as creating wallets for your coins, as well as how to trade them back for real cash. I even ended up making an account on CoinBase. I started mining for a few days and quickly learned that my AMD R9 390 Graphics card wasn't enough to make a living (or even some play money). Bitcoin was way out of my league as you would need a specialized piece of equipment for mining Bitcoin which was very expensive. From here, I started reading into Altcoins and ended up mining Ethereum. Even with a relatively new currency at the time, I wasn't impressed with the amount of money I was making. Like many investors, I started looking into getting more graphics cards so that I could use them to make more money. When this didn't happen, I ended up leaving the whole thing. There were those that bought 3-6 more graphics cards and made ~$400-$500 a month depending on the cards they got as well as the hash rate they were getting (The more hashes, the more money). For having a new source of income, this definitely would've been nice. The problem was that it would have taken 6 months for me to make back my money on the graphics cards.

The next time I would run into cryptocurrency mining was when I dared to venture onto the Dark Web. If you've done any research into the Dark Web, you would know that the Dark Web has tons of illegal activities occurring there. You can purchase services on there like buying illegal drugs, gaining access to illegal photos or information, spend money on illegal (though probably mostly fake) red rooms or hired hitmen. As a side note, the Dark Web isn't all bad. There's actually a lot of cool stuff on there that is legal to view and surf. Just learn how to stay protected on there as you don't want any creep to trace you. 

Getting back to the point, many of the items that are for sale there are illegal. To purchase these items, you would use Bitcoin. The reason behind this is that Bitcoin is fairly untraceable, so the government shouldn't be able to trace your purchases down. Now the government can look at Bitcoins "Block Chain," find your purchase, and through a lot of tracing, be able to trace the purchase back to you. Even so, Bitcoin is still the preferred method for buying these illegal things. Due to the fact that Bitcoin isn't controlled by any one government, anything could happen to it. Hackers can steal peoples currency and the government would be hard pressed to do anything about it. In the news, there were stories breaking about hackers stealing cryptocurrency mining day after day. As an investor, this doesn't make me feel comfortable about buying Bitcoin, or any other Altcoin for that matter. 

After discussing this problem with many investors, they simply say that it's a one off and that it won't have an effect on the price of Bitcoin. I beg the differ. This currency could be tampered with either by a hacker, or a hidden market maker, completely crashing the market, and running away with everyone's money. While this hasn't happened, this certainly would be the biggest heist ever committed. 

As an investor, I wanted to put these facts out in the opinion and discuss my opinions. I won't touch cryptocurrencies as I see them as the currency of choice for a thief. With the price of cryptocurrencies continuing to go higher, where will the limit hit? Is there even a ceiling for this currency? The future holds the answer for us, but as it stands today, I'll have to pass on the cryptocurrency train.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I also will not be holding shares in the company in the next two weeks of this articles posting.

I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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Aptose Biosciences. Inc. Forward-Looking Analysis

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Aptose Biosciences. Inc. Forward-Looking Analysis
7/13/2017 By: Richard L. Musgrave
Green Pennies Stock Report

Business Information:

Aptose Biosciences. Inc.
Ticker: APTO
PPS: 1.64    a/o     7/13/2017
Up 0.12 points or 7.89%

Market Value: $23,895,510 a/o July 12, 2017
Outstanding Shares: 15,721,388 a/o Dec 31, 2016

APTOSE Website: http://aptose.com/

Fundamental analysis:

According to Aptoses’ website, Aptose Biosciences is a biotechnical company that looks to find treatments for cancers. These cancers include acute myeloid leukemia (AML), high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) and other hematologic malignancies.

From their research, they have discovered that “CG026806 (CG’806) is a highly potent first-in-class pan-FLT3/BTK inhibitor.” This knowledge is aiding their fight against chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and more. Aptose also has another program called APTO-253 which is also aiding to treat cancer.

Aptose Management:
William G. Rice, Ph.D.  Chief Executive Officer (CEO)
Daniel D. Von Hoff, M.D., F.A.C.P. Senior Vice President, Medical Affairs
Stephen B. Howell, M.D. Acting Chief Medical Officer
Avanish Vellanki Chief Business Officer (CBO)
Gregory Chow Chief Financial Officer (CFO)                  

Institutional Ownership 11.11 %
Total Institutional Shares: 2,417,492
No Insider Traders
Possible Float: ~13,303,896

There is much competition for Aptose to fight against in the “finding the cure for cancer” market. From a business perspective, having a drug that cures cancer will practically print money for them. For example, some treatments for cancer can cost from $3000 too much more. These drugs, depending on their effectiveness, can create profits in the $1 Billion+ region. Because of this, many institutions are putting funds into finding the cure for various forms of cancer. This market is contently changing with new discoveries being frequently made. From a business standpoint, you need to make a drug that is more efficient, more effective, and more cost-effective to sell to the public. Simply, if you make the better drug and sell it for cheaper, your business will gain the market.

Looking at Aptoses’ income statement, they have a running loss with $0 in revenue. For the first quarter of 2017, the company had a net loss of ~$4,355,000. Also, over the course of the last year, the company has had a net loss of ~$17,910,000. Unless the company can create and sell one of their cures, Aptose will continue to run at a loss. If the company was to sell one of their cures, it comes down to how effective and efficient the drug is. These medicines would help it penetrate a full cancer treatments market. There is the possibility that the drugs and treatments could sell very well, but there is serious doubt that such an event will happen.

Aptoses’ balance statement shows that it has ~11,958,000 in on hand cash Q1 2017. From what we were able to find, the company is gaining on-hand cash from selling company shares to investors. In total, Aptose has a total of ~$12,676,000 in assets for Q1 2017. For accounts payable, Aptose has ~$2,340,000 in current liabilities. For shareholders equity, investors of Aptose have ~$235,869,000 in shares. The accumulated deficit for investors is ~$247,877,000.

On 6/8/2017, the company got rated as neutral by Rodman & Renshaw. Also, analysts rated the stock as a buy with a price target of $9. In forward-looking thoughts, $9 is a very optimistic number to put on a stock that currently doesn’t have any income, and is relying solely on investors. Our forward-looking though suggests that the stock will continue its period of consolidation until either they run out of funds or release a new product. Depending on the event, the price per share will reflect the positive or negative aspects of that event.

On 6/6/2017, the company held an annual meeting of shareholders. During this press release, the voting results for the company’s board of directors were released. Also, the company told shareholders that they displayed CG’806 in a presentation last month in Boston. From the press release, they stated that the product/treatment was performing well during their tests.

Technical Analysis:

In a timescale of 3 years, APTO has suffered a gradual decline in price per share (pps) starting from $7.4 in 10/27/14 and hitting its low of $0.87 in 4/24/17. From 11/16/15 to 10/10/16, the stock was in a period of consolidation holding around $2.5 - $2.7 pps. After 10/10/16, the stock broke downward hitting $0.9 in 11/14/16. The stock then backtracked some and then retested the new low of 0.87. From there, the stock has been on a small upward trend lasting to today at $1.64.
Today, the stock managed to break above the major upward resistance line above $1.55. It is likely that the stock will soon test this line again and possibly have it become the new primary lower resistance line. If the line holds, this would be great for the stock in that the price will continue to hold above $1.55 for the near future. The next major resistance line is at $2.34. If the current price per share does stay at these new levels, there might be a somewhat volatile movement up towards the next resistance level. I would advise investors to watch to see if the stock tests the new low. If the new low can hold, there is a good chance that you might get a taste of $2.34 in the future (an increase of ~51%). Of course, if the lower resistance line breaks, then you might be better off holding your shares.
Over the course of 3 years, the stock does not seem to be very volatile with a prolonged and relatively calm movement downward. It is likely that the new stocks bottom was found at $0.84 and an upward trend has formed. Short investors might try to make a play from the current pps to the $2.34 region as it would not take very long to form. Long investors might want to see more evidence that 0.87 was truly the bottom for the stock. If the current levels hold, then this investment might be worth it in the long run. Even so, I would advise keeping an eye out on the companies’ press releases. Bear in mind that APTO has no revenue at the moment.

Social Analysis:

For social analysis, we look at what investors are posting about the stock on sites like IHUB and Yahoo Money. A new board was just created for APTO on IHUB, so there aren’t that many people talking about the stock. At the time of writing this, there are at most ten people writing about the stock. Six of these people have the stocks added to their “My Stocks” page. Also, people are not posting too frequently about APTO. We tend to like pages that have a lot a lot of interest and many individuals talking solely about the stock.
Opinions of APTO seem to be very positive. Many of the investors are talking about how some large hands are scooping up many shares from the float. Others are noting that management has made some smart management decisions recently. All seems to be going well for the stock, though we would like to see more engagement about the stock. It is likely that in time, more and more investors will start to pick APTO up.

Forward-Looking Analysis:

Our team has decided that the best way to play the stock would be to wait until the lower resistance line of ~$1.50 be tested again. If the stock falls below that level, then the stock will either enter another period of consolidation or continue its move downward. Otherwise, if APTO rises after retesting ~$1.50, this might be a buying opportunity as we might see $2.34 in the future.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I also will not be holding shares in the company in the next two weeks of this articles posting.

I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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